The Long-term Effects of FDI on Myanmar’s Economy: Economic Performance Across Government Transitions (2000–2024)

This study examines the long-term impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Myanmar's economic growth across four government transitions from 2000 to 2024: SPDC, USDP, NLD, and SAC. Using econometric models, including ANOVA, regression analysis, and the Chow test, the study evaluates the relationship between FDI and economic growth while considering key moderating factors such as political stability, human capital, inflation, and government expenditure. The findings indicate that FDI significantly contributed to GDP growth, particularly under stable governance, while political instability and inflation weakened its effects. The results highlight a structural break in economic performance following the 2021 government transition, with a sharp decline in GDP growth and investor confidence. This is the first study to offer these findings for Myanmar, providing valuable insights for policymakers and investors aiming to optimize FDI's role in economic development.